The cognitive warfare of China’s rocket launch

 Jan 12, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

It’s been a few days since the Chinese rocket flew over Taiwan. The reason the alert was broadcast has become clear. The rocket deviated from its original path, giving the Taiwanese air defenses only a few minutes to decide on a course of action. This leaves us with the unavoidable conclusion that this was an act of cognitive warfare on the part of China, to be classed with the massive release of AI created videos online intended to influence the voters in tomorrow’s election, and indeed, with the endless military provocations by China in the waters and skies around Taiwan. Cognitive warfare does have an effect. I noticed that this incident had a noticeable effect on peoples moods and behaviors. You can tell there is a psychological effect centered on the decision-making capacity of the brain. This is the intended outcome of this class of short-of-war coercive actions. They spread not only fear, but paralysis. It would be to the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party to spread both fear and apathy before Taiwanese elections, after all. And it’s possible that we might see this sort of activity around the US elections too. There have been several balloon sightings in Taiwan over the past few weeks, and we could see a replay of that scenario again during the lead-up to November. China mainly wants to send the message that they are watching and have the capacity to mess with our heads, so it wouldn’t have to be another media spectacle to produce a favorable outcome for the CCP. 

So that broaches the question of what is to be done about these sorts of paramilitary interference actions. The most important thing is awareness, and not only of the spectacle. The Taiwanese have an awareness that this is part of the geostrategic game, and if they couch the events in the context of China’s intentions, based on known facts, that takes the sting out of the actions. The key to democratic resiliency is to focus on democracy, and not on attempts to intimidate democracies, or the effects of the intimidation. Taiwan has done a good job of sticking to its guns, so to speak, and keeping its focus where it belongs: on the democratic process. The US can bring its power to bear on the issue in a helpful way by focusing on the essential reasons China might want to interfere in the US elections, such as support for Taiwan or trade issues, and interpret any acts of interference through that lens. It will help to dispel the cognitive effect of any interference that remains. Cognitive warfare is a new domain, and it will take a new practice of literacy – in media, culture, and geopolitics – to bolster US defense against it.

Chinese rocket to space triggers Taiwan missile alert

China launched a rocket this afternoon carrying a satellite that flew over southern Taiwan.  This triggered the missile detection system and all of Taiwan got an alert on their smartphones.  China has launched rockets carrying satellites over Taiwan before, but this is the first time an air raid alert was triggered by it.  Reasons for that are unclear, but tensions are high.  

 

Cognitive warfare directed at Taiwan at this moment is election interference

 Jan. 8, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

What exactly do we mean by saying election interference by China against Taiwan? I suppose we can start by saying that Taiwan has a robust democratic system, but it is a young democracy, with a legacy of being a government of China in exile, so there are elements in what we are talking about of what you might call traditional cross-Strait relationships, of, for instance, diaspora and nostalgia.  Chinese influence on politics is also a societal and demographic problem. Examples of this would include the many cases being investigated and prosecuted right now of local politicians taking paid propaganda trips to China, where they are told how to act or vote. This is a certain extreme of this social phenomenon of diaspora and nostalgia. 

However, the Chinese influence operations don’t stop there, and here is where we can stop blaming Taiwanese for the influence problem. The central problem to be understood here is that China is using just about everything short of war to coerce Taiwan into eventually accepting reunification, and, as a democratic country facing an authoritarian country, Taiwan is open to influence on its political system in ways that China is not. So China tends to launch operations to influence Taiwan during elections that Taiwan can’t respond to in the same manner. 

So that’s a bit of a dilemma for Taiwan. China’s current strategy is to combine domains of military, diplomatic, economic, and cyber to try to influence Taiwanese attitudes. For example, airplanes will fly over the median line of the Air Defense Identification Zone, while China is considering reneging on tariff exemptions, and Chinese cyber actors also launch cyber attacks and spread disinformation.

All of these actions tend to happen more or less concurrently, and are often launched in retaliation for certain things Taiwan does, like hosting foreign dignitaries, and especially when there are free elections.  In short, there is a rather intense bombardment across several conflict domains whenever Taiwan makes political decisions to engage with the democratic world, almost as if China is trying to be a domestic player in Taiwan’s politics.  This is, as clearly as I can right now state, what I mean by Chinese election interference.  It happens often, and it is not limited to expressions of force, but rather is an attempt to influence what used to be called hearts and minds, or the psychology of the opponent, or the will to fight. What we’re talking about now is the attempt to paralyze the decision-making capacity of the opponent, and this is also called cognitive warfare.

The Chinese have made cognitive warfare one of their main military domains of conflict, because their goal is to unify areas where they have disputed sovereignty into their version of a modern Chinese imperial dynasty. As Xi Jinping continues to consolidate strongman power in China, the tendency of the underlings at his command to exaggerate the goal of retaking disputed territory increases, taking on a more and more unhinged character.  This is the nature of the threat that Taiwan faces daily, which tends to build, even as Taiwan’s civil society grows stronger and more sophisticated.

Taiwan’s economic, technological, and social strength continues to increase in the face of these cognitive warfare threats. To grasp an example of why this might be, I remember talking to a veteran of the Standing Rock protests, who said that in the most tense days of the standoff, with private mercenaries surrounding them with guns and the latest police technology, those were the nights when he had never slept better in his life. I do believe Taiwan thrives in the same way.

U.S. forces close at hand for Taiwanese elections

 Jan. 7, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson is in deployment traveling near to Taiwan in the latest move in the geopolitical chess game centering on the Taiwanese elections. The elections are this Saturday. The USS Carl Vinson is traveling to the South China Sea, but the US already has carrier group stationed near Japan, and in the South China Sea, so the clear message is that the USS Carl Vinson and its carrier group are staying in the vicinity of Taiwan to present a show of US support for Taiwan at the time of its free elections. The US is obligated to defend Taiwan, and the potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait over Chinese election interference has been called one of the highest priority defense obligations of the US for the fourth straight year by the Council on Foreign Relations. The US moved an aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, which was the first time Taiwan held free elections, and since then there has usually been some show of support for Taiwan when they hold their elections. It’s impossible to say exactly what will happen this time around with tensions increasing in the region, but defense partnerships and fellow-feeling with Taiwan at a high-level. It is certain that this placement of US forces in the region is part of a deterrence strategy to preserve the sanctity of the Taiwanese democratic elections, and the capacity is there to prevent any overt use of force by China against Taiwan. The regular transit of US forces near Taiwan is part of the status quo. However, more covert and “hard to perceive“ kind of election interference by China are underway in the region and also deserve our attention. There will be a report on these new types by the Taiwanese government forthcoming after the vote that may help to prepare for interference in the US election in November.

US ships stay close ahead of election - Taipei Times

Information on election interference will be consolidated

 Jan. 6, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

The U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications reiterated American hopes that the Taiwanese elections are free and fair.  John Kirby said he could not however confirm individual reports of interference, but there are several this bystander could name.  The first is the repeated incursions of ship and aircraft into Taiwan’s defense perimeters, the second is the broadcast by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saying it was inevitable for Taiwan to be reunified with the mainland which was very overt election interference, and the third is the growing amount of research showing the ways that China is using the internet and media to interfere in the Taiwanese election cycle, whether through social media, TikTok, or hacking and spreading disinformation.  On the last topic, there was some new information in a Taiwanese NGO report about how the social media manipulation is carried out.  Fake accounts follow the orders of a “commander” account, according to AI Labs founder Ethan Tu, who has been studying this.  Some of these commander accounts are run by PR firms, so you can see how this kind of effort has been professionalized.  In general, cases of election interference are still on the rise, and it’s hard for media or anybody to keep track of all of it.  However, Taiwan’s government is promising as of Wednesday that it will publish a report on China’s attempts to interfere in the election, to be released after the vote.

Election interference influences the status quo: Taiwanese foreign minister

 Jan. 5, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

Chinese election interference has reached such a point that is threatens the status quo, according to Taiwan‘s current foreign minister. He gave an exclusive interview to Le Monde in English on the topic a few days ago.  The status quo is the current military, diplomatic and trade balance across the Taiwan Strait that maintains peace and stability and the possibility of a decent existence for Taiwanese. Both sides are tacit parties to the status quo, but China’s increasing aggressiveness in the Strait, and its increasing consolidation under an authoritarian leader, has undermined the status quo significantly, as evidenced by the Taiwanese foreign minister’s interview. The status quo in the Taiwan Strait is a centerpiece of US-Taiwan relations, and it is unlikely that this interview will go unnoticed by the US security apparatus.

Chinese influence harder to perceive: Joseph Wu - Taipei Times

The election 10 days out

Jan 3, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

The election season is in full swing here.  A common sight in Taipei is to see groups of people decked out in the election gear of their preferred candidate chanting slogans and handing out literature to passers-by.  In the rural areas it is cars that you see outfitted with loudspeakers playing the slogans of their candidates.  There’s been debates of the presidential and vice presidential candidates, and now we’re about to enter the final ten-day period when no one can talk about the polls.  

What are the kinds of things people are talking about in the meantime?  First of all, I believe this election is a referendum on the Sunflower Movement issues; to that extent the death penalty, which Taiwan still has, was discussed in debates.  Also to that extent, one party is calling for a return to CSSTA and another party is open to it in theory; only the DPP is still opposed to CSSTA and in line with the movement politics of the Sunflower Movement.  However, you can see some more sophisticated consensus developing too.  

In light of recent events, the third party candidate Ko Wen-je pointed out that cross strait politics have been augmented or even outright replaced by cross-Pacific politics, with the US and China as the main competitors.  “Cooperate if you must cooperate, compete if you must compete, and deter if you must deter,” he said, paraphrasing the US State Department.  However, the real connection to the world is more simple: the election is a test of Taiwanese society’s commitment to democracy and freedom.  It’s the sanctity of the elections themselves that needs to be protected, because this is exactly what China and authoritarian nations want to subvert and devalue.  

In the pursuit of maintaining and protecting democratic norms, Taiwan and the United States have leaned on their “robust unofficial relationship” which has been in place since the US cut off official ties to the Chiang regime in 1979.

One of the main reasons, I think, that the status quo is to be preferred here is that the unofficial relationship between the US and Taiwan has more preferable substance, including cooperation on human rights issues, that the official relationship with the Chiang regime simply did not.  Of course you can trace the development of that international cooperation through the Formosa Incident events which began right after the end of official ties in 1979. 

Some of the Formosa Incident activists are active DPP politicians now in this government.  Some will doubtless remain if the DPP wins another term.  But one of the most interesting persons to emerge through this election cycle has been the former envoy to the United States, now vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim.  She’s leveraged a very successful tour of duty in the US into a vice presidential nomination, and she represents a certain continuity between the DPP old guard and the future (that includes Sunflower activists.)

She made note of the framework that I will close with for now before the talk of polls must cease for ten days.  In a speech she outlined Taiwan’s raison d’etat particularly on the global stage in a way any Foucauldean would appreciate.  The reasons that govern Taiwan, she said, are “security, trade, and global cooperation.”  A worthy project for a small island nation punching above its weight in global affairs.