The cognitive warfare of China’s rocket launch

 Jan 12, 2024

Taipei, Taiwan

It’s been a few days since the Chinese rocket flew over Taiwan. The reason the alert was broadcast has become clear. The rocket deviated from its original path, giving the Taiwanese air defenses only a few minutes to decide on a course of action. This leaves us with the unavoidable conclusion that this was an act of cognitive warfare on the part of China, to be classed with the massive release of AI created videos online intended to influence the voters in tomorrow’s election, and indeed, with the endless military provocations by China in the waters and skies around Taiwan. Cognitive warfare does have an effect. I noticed that this incident had a noticeable effect on peoples moods and behaviors. You can tell there is a psychological effect centered on the decision-making capacity of the brain. This is the intended outcome of this class of short-of-war coercive actions. They spread not only fear, but paralysis. It would be to the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party to spread both fear and apathy before Taiwanese elections, after all. And it’s possible that we might see this sort of activity around the US elections too. There have been several balloon sightings in Taiwan over the past few weeks, and we could see a replay of that scenario again during the lead-up to November. China mainly wants to send the message that they are watching and have the capacity to mess with our heads, so it wouldn’t have to be another media spectacle to produce a favorable outcome for the CCP. 

So that broaches the question of what is to be done about these sorts of paramilitary interference actions. The most important thing is awareness, and not only of the spectacle. The Taiwanese have an awareness that this is part of the geostrategic game, and if they couch the events in the context of China’s intentions, based on known facts, that takes the sting out of the actions. The key to democratic resiliency is to focus on democracy, and not on attempts to intimidate democracies, or the effects of the intimidation. Taiwan has done a good job of sticking to its guns, so to speak, and keeping its focus where it belongs: on the democratic process. The US can bring its power to bear on the issue in a helpful way by focusing on the essential reasons China might want to interfere in the US elections, such as support for Taiwan or trade issues, and interpret any acts of interference through that lens. It will help to dispel the cognitive effect of any interference that remains. Cognitive warfare is a new domain, and it will take a new practice of literacy – in media, culture, and geopolitics – to bolster US defense against it.