Jan. 7, 2024
Taipei, Taiwan
US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson is in deployment traveling near to Taiwan in the latest move in the geopolitical chess game centering on the Taiwanese elections. The elections are this Saturday. The USS Carl Vinson is traveling to the South China Sea, but the US already has carrier group stationed near Japan, and in the South China Sea, so the clear message is that the USS Carl Vinson and its carrier group are staying in the vicinity of Taiwan to present a show of US support for Taiwan at the time of its free elections. The US is obligated to defend Taiwan, and the potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait over Chinese election interference has been called one of the highest priority defense obligations of the US for the fourth straight year by the Council on Foreign Relations. The US moved an aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, which was the first time Taiwan held free elections, and since then there has usually been some show of support for Taiwan when they hold their elections. It’s impossible to say exactly what will happen this time around with tensions increasing in the region, but defense partnerships and fellow-feeling with Taiwan at a high-level. It is certain that this placement of US forces in the region is part of a deterrence strategy to preserve the sanctity of the Taiwanese democratic elections, and the capacity is there to prevent any overt use of force by China against Taiwan. The regular transit of US forces near Taiwan is part of the status quo. However, more covert and “hard to perceive“ kind of election interference by China are underway in the region and also deserve our attention. There will be a report on these new types by the Taiwanese government forthcoming after the vote that may help to prepare for interference in the US election in November.
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