Election season starts

Dec. 16, 2023

Taipei, Taiwan

Election season starts

The Taiwanese election campaign has officially started and it will last the 28 days until January 12, the day before the January 13 election. There are officially three candidates for the presidency with Terry Gou dropping out and the cooperation pact between the two remaining opposition parties never materializing and drawing attention from legal investigators for possibly contravening election law. Additionally it was announced that during the last 10 days of the election campaign, it will not be permitted by law to publicly discuss opinion polls.

Election commission officially starts campaign - Taipei Times

The reality beneath the surface is more complicated. Three overlapping issues lurk under the surface of this election. All were reported on today. They are: that this election is a sort of late referendum on the Taiwanese people’s thoughts on the trade with China some 10 years after the Sunflower Movement that shook up society and was a repudiation of then-current trade policies with China; that China’s cognitive warfare directed at the island, including its use of AI to do astroturfing campaigns, which was recently revealed concretely by a US research firm, are intensifying enough to be worthy of notice, by international partners; and, that authorities, having recently detained 40 people on charges of voting interference, with nine charged with aiding a foreign power, the concerns about the security of these free elections are moving the government here to act. I would say the mood here is sort of tense. Taiwanese are no strangers to democracy, but the freedoms here are in careful balance with the measures to address the geopolitical lines of force, some of which, as we have seen, directly target, the island’s self-rule capacity.

Office criticizes Chinese trade ruling - Taipei Times

China’s cognitive warfare intensifying, official says - Taipei Times

Forty detained over voting interference - Taipei Times

It might be good to take a pause here to consider what is important about this election from an international perspective.  The relationship with the US will not be changed from our perspective after all. President Biden has often reiterated the solidity of US support for Taiwan. But the ways that the US understands Asia will take a slightly different quality depending on the party in charge of Taiwan’s government, even if the quantity of US support for Taiwan remains unchanged. Taiwan and the US will always be steadfast partners. But as the US’s critical window onto Asia, Taiwan’s electoral outcome may change the tone of the United States’ Asia policy. Among the topics that may shift in priority are Southeast Asian security and development, North Korea policy, and the Chinese government’s real estate market and credit woes. And above all the topic that will likely increase the most in the US-based geopolitical analysis is the South China Sea island disputes. Depending on the Taiwanese election’s outcome, we might see a discourse about protecting trade, freedom of navigation through the area, and development of resources, especially natural gas, in the region, or, we might see more talk about security disputes and alliances over the disputed islets.

Considering the US and Taiwan relationship separately, that is to say, the biggest change as a result of this election will be in how the US perceives the rest of Asia and Asian policy.  Taiwan is the democratic West’s key window onto Asia, but its interpretive vista may change due to its election outcomes.  The U.S. should be ready to adapt accordingly.