Chinese disinformation targets both the Taiwan and U.S. elections.

Dec. 2, 2023

Taipei, Taiwan

 

In Taiwan, one of the first things you notice now is how high the stakes are in this upcoming election. It’s being seen as a test of the ability of Taiwan’s society to overcome the problems of the past, and, in light of China’s increasing authoritarian efforts to control the affairs of East Asia, also the Taiwanese election is a continuation of the democratization process that began in the 1990’s.  That’s when the first free elections were held, ending one-party rule by the KMT.  Around that time, the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait to counter aggression by the Chinese toward this free election.  That, the conclusion of the Taiwan Strait Crisis, highlights ties that still exist in the region. 

Some cooperation and shared fate still exists between the United States and Taiwan over the issue of elections.  For example, while Taiwanese investigators probe deepfake elections scams, the National Security Bureau hires AI operators to fight election interference, and a new wave of disinformation coming from China heads into the country, several thousand fake social media accounts were closed by Meta for trying to interfere in the U.S. election.  The fates of Taiwan, the U.S. and several major democracies are tied together in this. 

Police probe ‘deepfake’ blackmail scam - Taipei Times

NSB to hire AI talent to fight foreign interference - Taipei Times

New disinformation wave heads across Strait: NYT - Taipei Times

Meta closes fake accounts from China - Taipei Times

Taiwan’s elections are important to democracies around the world, including the U.S.

Nov. 24, 2023

Taiwan’s upcoming election is important to the U.S. because it is a testing ground for strategies to counter disinformation.  Recent development of AI has supercharged this attack vector against global democracies.  The authors below call this sort of threat to democracy “computational propaganda” and the work is worth a read.

Computational Propaganda and Democracy in Taiwan: AI’s Impacts on Pre-Existing Challenges – Taiwan Insight

The note made by the authors that development of AI could potentially alter the landscape of political discourse drew my attention.  It’s important to see in Taiwan’s effort to maintain its democratic society, a universal lesson for democracy around the world: disinformation and election interference needs to be opposed by the whole of society working together. 

Taiwan’s experience of holding elections under these conditions is a bellwether for democratic societies that are also to have major elections in 2024, like Indonesia, India, and the U.S.  This is something the author of this second piece explicitly mentions. 

How AI could sway voters in 2024’s big elections | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Taiwan’s fight against Chinese cognitive warfare

Nov. 23, 2023 

Things are heating up in East Asia and the Asia Pacific after Biden’s talk with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC this past week.  The U.S. military stages patrols with the Philippines in the waters near Taiwan now, Taiwan prepares for its general election this winter, and Australia “beefs up” its cybersecurity in the wake of many cyber attacks in recent years. 

Philippines launches joint sea, air patrols with US military | Reuters

Taiwan ruling party powers ahead as chaos engulfs opposition campaign | Reuters

Taiwan ruling party talks China policy as opposition campaign unravels | Reuters

Australia beefs up cyber defences after major breaches | Reuters

China is undoubtedly carrying on election interference and cognitive warfare in Taiwan right now. There seems to be plenty of awareness about this issue in Taiwan. And we do have a limited window into the means by which they are doing it. If you follow the Taiwan Fact Check Centers “Disinformation Detector“ newsletter, you can get some historical examples of this from the last two election cycles. The project is ongoing, but thus far an interesting fact has come up. Namely, the method that Chinese cognitive warfare is taking up to use in its effort to influence Taiwan is the use and abuse of what are called “narratives“, that is, discursive pieces that tap into current contentions in society.  I would argue there are good and bad uses of narratives, and China seems to be mostly malefic in nature, exploiting peoples existential dread. For example, there is a lot of spreading skepticism about the US, one of Taiwan’s closest allies. The US closely supports Taiwan, and public sentiment to support Taiwan is only growing in the US. Not only is the US obligated to defend Taiwan, but Taiwan is one of its essential trade partners. So it is obvious why China wants to sow doubt about this relationship. 

Although by and large Taiwanese are savvy enough to pick up on who is peddling mainland-based propaganda, some disinformation efforts have in the past had a chilling effect on voters. For example, on election day in 2020, disinformation pieces about vote rigging “provided erroneous information to make voting appear troublesome enough to discourage voters“ according to the Disinfo Detector.  Thus it is still important to debunk disinformation even as cognitive warfare moves in new directions.

The other events we see, including the US, moving into a protective role in the waters off of Taiwan, and Taiwan’s free elections themselves, are part of the resistance to Chinese cognitive warfare in the region.  This shift in the analytical paradigm is good for Taiwan, but can’t happen without increased concern for democracy, labor unions and social movements both in the US and abroad.  The world can benefit from Taiwan’s fight against Chinese cognitive warfare.

Cognitive warfare investigations

 Nov. 21, 2023

When the RAND Corporation published this year‘s report on Chinese cognitive warfare, new AI technologies had just been introduced that RAND noted as being able to turbocharge so-called astroturfing operations in cyberspace.  Astroturfing involves coordinating swarms of social media profiles to generate a false impression of grassroots support for a particular issue or advocacy campaign.  Now it seems that investigative branches of Taiwan’s government have also taken up the task of looking into Chinese astroturfing campaigns.  By looking into the flow of overseas money towards political causes and candidates, temple organizations, and social media influencers, Taiwan’s government could gain more information about Chinese cognitive warfare tactics.  The central government is also sharing information with local law enforcement and investigators about financial transactions that might coincide with election interference activities from China.  

MJIB eyes China cash ahead of elections - Taipei Times

A historical note on the Sunflower Movement in Taiwan

Nov. 17, 2023

Interview: Shen Chingkai - Daybreak Project

This piece, a conversation between two activists, sheds historical light on the situation in Taiwan.  With lessons that can apply elsewhere, it shows the continued relevance of this social movement in Taiwan.  

The Sunflower Movement was many movements rolled into one, united for a communal expression of identity.  It was not controlled centrally by one person or even one group; it could not ever have one singular expression of its ideas, nor certainly could it be described as belonging to a person, a time, or a singular quest.  Central to it was the desire of the people for more agency and concern for the plight of the youth.  What was amazing about it was the way it spoke the people’s voice and resonates still with so many people today.  Movements have power to shape the discourse, and it is remarkable how this movement did just that.  You can often see just how societies are changing by looking at social movements.  Taiwan is becoming more humane and confident.  

What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?

What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?

10/22/23

China is not commenting on the timing of its investigating Foxconn in a tax audit and land use probe as its founder Terry Gou is running for president in Taiwan.  Despite everything else, this is the clearest path for the Chinese gov’t to overtly interfere with the Taiwanese elections in the midst of the “chip war”.

There is a Tang Dynasty story about a man who was fired by his general and fell asleep under an ash tree.  While he slept he dreamed he married the daughter of a great king and became governor of Nanke.  When he woke up he was disappointed to find it was only a dream.  This has led to the Chinese idiom “Dreaming of Nanke”.  

In one manner of speaking or another, any or all of the candidates could find in a little while that they have been asleep and Dreaming of Nanke…

10/28/23

The pan-Blue coalition of opposition parties are trying to forge some cooperation pact before January’s elections.  Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei, now wants to include Terry Gou in the prospective cooperation agreement, despite him currently being under investigation by both China and Taiwan at the same time.  

What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?  The AIT director says the U.S. and Taiwan are on the front lines of an “information war” while President Biden restricts sales of NVIDIA AI chips to China, and a Taiwanese lab produces a workable quantum computer. 

The central place of TSMC in all of this continues to inspire awe. 

TSMC is a “jewel of the nation” of Taiwan.  It represents the power of Taiwan in international relations, as well as the aspirations of millions of Asians who would like to see careers as impactful as those offered by TSMC.  But it also represents creative trans-Pacific economic cooperation and development.  And it needs to continue to be that beacon of promise in the technological age. 

There’s a place for Taiwan in the world economic order, that is not limited to TSMC.   There’s a place for it as a democratic nation and not just an economic powerhouse.  We have to find that space where Taiwan can participate in global institutions without fear of reprisal from China.  The project of doing this will likely take many decades.  But in the meantime, we can take measures worldwide to keep Taiwan safe. 

Taiwan is a democracy, an open society with freedom of speech, press, and assembly; a place where labor unions can thrive.  This is all very different from China, from which Taiwan faces its biggest threat. 

One of the main ways the world community could move to include Taiwan in the world order would be to reconsider U.N. Resolution 2758.  The text of that resolution only expelled “representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from occupying the place of China at the U.N.  It said nothing about Taiwan or its representatives.  Power has long since been democratically devolved to the people in Taiwan, and it is no longer ruled as a private fiefdom by Chiang and his allies.  Taiwan could take a lawful place at the U.N. in the foreseeable future.  

11/4/23

Taiwan to spend NT$300bn on chips, AI - Taipei Times

This article, published November 3, states three major policies of the Taiwanese government in advance of the election early next year.  The first is the investment of roughly 10 million US dollars in the semiconductor chip industry.  The second, the Ministries of Justice and Interior have “stepped up their intelligence gathering efforts” in relation to potential election interference - this after a raid in Changhua County on two brothers who solicited funds to bet on the election.  The third, further news about the investigation of Terry Gou’s campaign for purchasing personal information to use in the presidential hopeful’s signature drive to get on the ballot. 

Nation-state hackers detected targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering purposes

October 16, 2023

Symantec notes in its report on the activities of the hacker group “Grayling” that it is probably a nation-state group and it is probably conducting espionage through its hacks, which breached targets in the U.S., Vietnam, Taiwan, and another Pacific Island from February to May of 2023.  The group uses a mix of publicly available, or “living off the land” tools and proprietary tools which is typical for this moment.  (One of the tools, for example, is also used in legitimate penetration testing but is often used for nefarious purposes as well).  The group target the public facing servers of government, manufacturing, I.T., and biomedical industries across the target area, and used DLL sideloading to perform unspecified operations within the servers, which “Grayling” then deleted from the logs.  A popular Windows vulnerability tracked as “CVE-2019-0803” was exploited in these attacks.  Symantec notes that the “heavy targeting of Taiwanese organizations” indicates that the attacks probably come from a nation with “a strategic interest in Taiwan”.   Chinese-backed hacking groups have compromised critical infrastructure in Guam in May of this year, attacked a wide variety of states across Southeast Asia and Europe since 2021, and exfiltrated data from and disrupted investment in the Taiwanese financial sector from 2021-2022.  The Symantec report, however, declined as yet to name a country behind the cyberattacks.  

For more: 

Grayling: Previously Unseen Threat Actor Targets Multiple Organizations in Taiwan | Symantec Enterprise Blogs

Nation-state hacker group targeting Taiwan, US, Vietnam and Pacific Islands