What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?

What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?

10/22/23

China is not commenting on the timing of its investigating Foxconn in a tax audit and land use probe as its founder Terry Gou is running for president in Taiwan.  Despite everything else, this is the clearest path for the Chinese gov’t to overtly interfere with the Taiwanese elections in the midst of the “chip war”.

There is a Tang Dynasty story about a man who was fired by his general and fell asleep under an ash tree.  While he slept he dreamed he married the daughter of a great king and became governor of Nanke.  When he woke up he was disappointed to find it was only a dream.  This has led to the Chinese idiom “Dreaming of Nanke”.  

In one manner of speaking or another, any or all of the candidates could find in a little while that they have been asleep and Dreaming of Nanke…

10/28/23

The pan-Blue coalition of opposition parties are trying to forge some cooperation pact before January’s elections.  Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei, now wants to include Terry Gou in the prospective cooperation agreement, despite him currently being under investigation by both China and Taiwan at the same time.  

What is the narrative in East Asia geopolitically?  The AIT director says the U.S. and Taiwan are on the front lines of an “information war” while President Biden restricts sales of NVIDIA AI chips to China, and a Taiwanese lab produces a workable quantum computer. 

The central place of TSMC in all of this continues to inspire awe. 

TSMC is a “jewel of the nation” of Taiwan.  It represents the power of Taiwan in international relations, as well as the aspirations of millions of Asians who would like to see careers as impactful as those offered by TSMC.  But it also represents creative trans-Pacific economic cooperation and development.  And it needs to continue to be that beacon of promise in the technological age. 

There’s a place for Taiwan in the world economic order, that is not limited to TSMC.   There’s a place for it as a democratic nation and not just an economic powerhouse.  We have to find that space where Taiwan can participate in global institutions without fear of reprisal from China.  The project of doing this will likely take many decades.  But in the meantime, we can take measures worldwide to keep Taiwan safe. 

Taiwan is a democracy, an open society with freedom of speech, press, and assembly; a place where labor unions can thrive.  This is all very different from China, from which Taiwan faces its biggest threat. 

One of the main ways the world community could move to include Taiwan in the world order would be to reconsider U.N. Resolution 2758.  The text of that resolution only expelled “representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from occupying the place of China at the U.N.  It said nothing about Taiwan or its representatives.  Power has long since been democratically devolved to the people in Taiwan, and it is no longer ruled as a private fiefdom by Chiang and his allies.  Taiwan could take a lawful place at the U.N. in the foreseeable future.  

11/4/23

Taiwan to spend NT$300bn on chips, AI - Taipei Times

This article, published November 3, states three major policies of the Taiwanese government in advance of the election early next year.  The first is the investment of roughly 10 million US dollars in the semiconductor chip industry.  The second, the Ministries of Justice and Interior have “stepped up their intelligence gathering efforts” in relation to potential election interference - this after a raid in Changhua County on two brothers who solicited funds to bet on the election.  The third, further news about the investigation of Terry Gou’s campaign for purchasing personal information to use in the presidential hopeful’s signature drive to get on the ballot. 

Nation-state hackers detected targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering purposes

October 16, 2023

Symantec notes in its report on the activities of the hacker group “Grayling” that it is probably a nation-state group and it is probably conducting espionage through its hacks, which breached targets in the U.S., Vietnam, Taiwan, and another Pacific Island from February to May of 2023.  The group uses a mix of publicly available, or “living off the land” tools and proprietary tools which is typical for this moment.  (One of the tools, for example, is also used in legitimate penetration testing but is often used for nefarious purposes as well).  The group target the public facing servers of government, manufacturing, I.T., and biomedical industries across the target area, and used DLL sideloading to perform unspecified operations within the servers, which “Grayling” then deleted from the logs.  A popular Windows vulnerability tracked as “CVE-2019-0803” was exploited in these attacks.  Symantec notes that the “heavy targeting of Taiwanese organizations” indicates that the attacks probably come from a nation with “a strategic interest in Taiwan”.   Chinese-backed hacking groups have compromised critical infrastructure in Guam in May of this year, attacked a wide variety of states across Southeast Asia and Europe since 2021, and exfiltrated data from and disrupted investment in the Taiwanese financial sector from 2021-2022.  The Symantec report, however, declined as yet to name a country behind the cyberattacks.  

For more: 

Grayling: Previously Unseen Threat Actor Targets Multiple Organizations in Taiwan | Symantec Enterprise Blogs

Nation-state hacker group targeting Taiwan, US, Vietnam and Pacific Islands

Critical context related to Taiwan on global technology issues

October 12, 2023

Many issues of global relevance have roots in Taiwan.  A look through some recent news items will show several interrelated technology issues — the “chip war”, Chinese disinformation, and cyber attacks — which have consequences that will reverberate through the global economy in years to come.  

Chip war 

How Taiwan won the semiconductor race - Engelsberg ideas

Here you will find a simple explanation of Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor chip manufacturing, as well as a peek into the business model that has made it so successful, namely, that Taiwanese companies operate on the contract model which allows them to supply several rival companies with products without competing directly.

Silicon Island (2022) : Throughline : NPR

NPR takes a look at the origin of the Taiwan semiconductor industry, including a glance at the structure of the public-private and transnational investment structure that allowed it to arise.

U.S.-China Chip War Over Taiwan Nears Moment Of Truth For S&P 500, Nvidia, Apple And The World | Investor's Business Daily

A fair amount of speculation is going on about the competition over semiconductor technology, including gaming the possible outcomes from geostrategic competition over this technology.  This note to investors calls the upcoming Taiwanese election a critical moment in the technological competition between the U.S. and China.

The War Over the World's Most Critical Technology: A Conversation with Chris Miller | Council on Foreign Relations

Some background on the situation from an author who has written a book about the “chip war” notes the ramifications to the U.S. auto industry from a chip shortage can be dire (as we experienced during COVID-19) and notes that even with the CHIPS Act bringing chip production to the U.S., Taiwan’s importance in the supply chain will not diminish in the foreseeable future. 

How America can win the Chip Wars - UnHerd

The same author notes that the strategic position of the U.S. in this competition is stronger relative to China.  The strategy of the U.S. has been to insulate a global supply chain from Chinese interference, whereas the Chinese strategy has been to create homegrown chips to sell domestically.  It’s not likely to be a chip “war” that China will win. 

Disinformation 

China is flooding Taiwan with disinformation

Chinese disinformation including wild conspiracy theories about American involvement in Asia spread not only through social media but through the traditional media in Taiwan as well, although officials largely deny them and specialized NGO’s debunk them.

Taiwan Faces Disinformation Warfare and Learning to Detect Them

Taiwan has developed a small industry of experts that debunk Chinese disinformation campaigns, and are sharing that expertise with other Asian nations that may not have the requisite knowledge to do so.  This article also includes a note from someone working for one of these NGO’s about the use of Artificial Intelligence by Chinese disinformation actors.

How China Shapes “Narratives” as Opinion Warfare Tactic During VP Lai’s Trip to Paraguay - The News Lens International Edition

Constructing “narratives” about Taiwan rather than spreading fake news is the newest tack Chinese propaganda organs are taking.  This strategy amplifies issues in Taiwan’s democratic society that are already becoming heated, and are thus harder to debunk than fake news.

TFC Disinfo Detector #1: Foreign Forgeries – an analysis of disinformation tactics leveraging Taiwan’s diplomatic events

In depth analysis at this link notes some examples of narrative reframing used by China, distortions of documents in the deployment of this disinformation, and the troubling nature of the transnational spread of these disinformation campaigns. 

Cyber attacks 

Taiwan is bracing for Chinese cyberattacks, White House official says - POLITICO

The Biden White House has promised aid to Taiwan over cyber attacks. 

Hackers seek election division: officials - Taipei Times

There are two recent examples of cyber attacks by China being used for election interference and cognitive warfare in Taiwan: the first, a disinformation operation originating from a hacked router in a motel in Kaohsiung.  The second was a hack on a cloud services company in Hong Kong that was then used to spread disinformation.  Investigators noted that Hong Kong was increasingly being detected as a staging point for cyber attacks on Taiwan.

Chinese man wanted for data leak - Taipei Times

Taiwan’s household registration records were recently hacked by a Chinese national and posted online to BreachForums, where a Taiwanese bought them out of curiosity.  The hacker is now a wanted person and the Taiwanese purchaser is being charged with breaking local laws.  BreachForums’ clearnet domain was seized by a U.S. joint federal operation in June under a warrant issued by the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.  

Global Awakenings

Oct. 5, 2023

The narrative of the past few decades globally has been of a democratic awakening.  It’s important to make the connection between Tahrir Square, Spain’s Indignados movement, Occupy Wall Street, and Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement.  What is at stake in all of them is the sanctity of democracy.  These are, by and large, democracy movements.  They encompass a wide range of issue advocacy, but central to all their activism is the ideal of a robust democracy that gives voice to the underprivileged and marginalized.  Economic issues are present along with their advocates, but the overall structure of the movements, their ideals and their strategies, have much more to do with broader social and political goals. 

In all cases the movement is toward broader civic participation, more inclusive societal structures, more compassionate government, and preserving the rights of peoples.  

This can be linked to the discontentment of the 20th century, in particular disillusionment with technocrats and faceless bureaucracy.  

These are student movements and human rights movements.  In Taiwan, in the U.S., even in other countries, these movements still have enormous cultural currency.  What has changed over time is the injection of these movements into the organized labor movement.  All over the world the effect of Occupy, the Sunflower Movement, or their local analogues has invigorated the labor movement, bringing with it more energetic and militant economic demands and forcing a reevaluation of global political economy. 

These demands have coalesced around information technology and green energy, just as the student movements did, causing revolutions in consciousness.  I would argue we would not be so aware of the issues surrounding silicon chips if not for this revitalized movement for 21st century labor.  Nor would we be hearing nascent conversations about the rare earth metals extraction for computer parts and batteries if not for the student movement consciousness entering the labor paradigm.  We would certainly not be seeing so many strikes and labor actions if the labor movement wasn’t feeling ready for them due to the influx of young student activists.  

We are in the midst of a great labor awakening everywhere where there were successful student movements in the early 21st century.  What had seemed to be impossible before is now on the agenda of an active labor movement. The WGA succeeded in reigning in some of the abuses of Big Tech.  The UAW is striving for a just transition to green energy vehicles.  What seemed beyond our reach is now in the realm of the possible.  Whatever happens on the front lines of the labor struggle will define what rights we can claw back from the faceless institutions. 

We live in an era of mass surveillance.  Will that situation improve?  We live in an oligopoly of global wealth and power.  Will the people seize that power back from the brink of global peonage?  All seems possible as long as workers stand united against corporate greed.  

We live in a new Gilded Age.  But we should not forget that the last Gilded Age, of the late 1800’s, was followed by a Progressive Age of social reform, trust-busting, labor militancy, and the leveling of society on a massive scale.  That could be the future and not just a history lesson.  When workers seize the levers of power that shake society to its very roots, they create real, socially responsible change.  Thanks to the student movements, we now know that we live in a global society.  But now we can also see that just like the Progressive reformers of the last century changed their societies for the better, this new global movement of adults can change this enormously unequal global society for the better, ushering in a new era of peace, plenty, and equality for all peoples of the globe.  

The Chinese “War and Peace”

October 5, 2023

Taiwan’s story is the effort to bring an age-old civilization into modern democracy.  Thus, it’s also an existential question for the democratic ideal itself.  One has only to remember that China under the last emperor was a feudal monarchy to drive home the point about how far Taiwan has come.  The unique history of bringing democracy to East Asia indicates that what is at stake and happening is also enlightenment itself.  There is an ancient system of philosophy that is being brought into accord with modern democratic norms.  

Chinese philosophy is an ancient system of thought whose development you can trace through the story of the modernization of China and the political situation faced by partisans of democracy throughout their long journey to Taiwan.  You can see this in the way that the last emperor was dethroned.  It was through a network of political societies which had as one of their aims to “oppose the Qing and restore the Ming,” referring to the Ming Dynasty in China that was formed through an uprising of local peasants of Chinese descent organized into secret societies like the White Lotus.  The early movements to abolish the monarchy were characterized as a return to a Golden Age of the early Ming Dynasty and its concomitant associations with authentic Chinese philosophies of life and governance.  Although even this inspiration changed its form as democracy’s adoption progressed, it has remained an important touchstone for the philosophy undergirding the democratic development of Taiwan.  

Several Republic of China generals under house arrest on Taiwan, including Peter Chang Hsueh-liang, studied Ming Dynasty literature and thinking during their imprisonment.  It was taken to be a sign of their continued fidelity to the cause.  One example of the continuing influence of the Ming Dynasty literature on ideas of politics and statecraft is the long novelWater Margin, which is the ancient Chinese equivalent to War and Peace.  Water Margin was studied during the settlement on Taiwan for its lessons on building what would come to be a modern Chinese state.  Its parallels to the story of War and Peace are uncanny.  The title is also translated as “Outlaws of the Marsh” or “All Men are Brothers”.  Like Tolstoy’s classic, it shows different ways of seeing and understanding the world, through a large cast of characters and a historical backdrop.  

There is a strong hint in the book, from all accounts, at the existence of a fundamentally democratic nature to Chinese culture and society.  Although Mao Zedong was known to be a reader of this book, it is clear that he got wrong this lesson from it:  Chinese people are generally open to the very same democracy that the People’s Republic of China is now so intent on avoiding.  The reception to All Men are Brothers on Taiwan, which was more spiritual, had a greater effect on society.  Spiritual pluralism is a fundamental cornerstone of War and Peace, and Taiwan chose that interpretation. 

The story of both All Men are Brothers and War and Peace contains remarkably similar characters and storylines.  It is a testament to some fundamental unity in the human spirit that such remarkably similar works were produced in such different places and times, and I believe it is one of the reasons Taiwan seems so familiar to Western eyes and ears, like a half-remembered song.  

Masculinity

 October 2, 2023

The topic of masculinity itself has aroused consternation as of late.  Three groups of commentators, those in Taiwan, those in the United States, and female commentators in the media have all brought their readers’ attention to the issue recently. 

Michael Turton wrote today in the Taipei Times about a political rally in May that drew crowds of mostly disaffected young men.  He points to three factors that may have led to this growing trend of male discontent: 1) loss of economic opportunity, 2) loss of socialization and vocational training opportunities, and 3) the overall trend of precarity in the economic outlook of young men. The concern is that some politician will take an authoritarian lesson from this stratum of society. 

Of course, this echoes the words of Saul Kaplan as early as 2011 when he wrote his piece “The Plight of Young Males” in the Harvard Business Review.  “We can and must recognize the unique challenges of young men and we had better start doing something about it now,” he said. 

Caitlin Flanagan contributed some counter-programming in this vein when in the pages of the Atlantic Magazine she wrote recently about “heroic” as opposed to “toxic” masculinity. 

Being a man is not easy, and men need to help each other become better men.  This is an age-old problem facing society now.  Of course, the solutions are simple once you hear them.  What we are looking for is behavior that promotes the betterment of society and not disharmony.  Man should exhibit the chivalric characteristics of humility, faith, integrity, justice, and courage.  

We live in hope that men can reach these chivalric ideals in common speech and action.  In the meantime, I have been reading Zizek on “courtly love,” a subject closely related to the masculinity debates.  I think the main point he makes in his essay on courtly love is that there is a displacement of the power dynamics between men onto the courtly image of a knight serving his Lady.  The now-apparent reality of male domination in historic chivalric romances also conceals the inequality between men, within which there is also the seed of the brotherhood of men.  If that was too fast for you to follow, you can at least agree that the chivalric romance as a genre was performative and signified something other than only the adoration of a knight toward his Lady.  What Zizek calls a “deadlock” in modern feminism presents what is perceived by some men as a missing ideal, toward which, to apply the lessons of the knightly tales of love and valor, results only in disappointment.  This creates a resentment out of which men are manipulated by political forces instead of being free.  The quiescent population desired by authoritarian regimes can have its origin in this. 

It may be counterintuitive to some, but “the patriarchy” is usually one of the first enemies of authoritarian regimes.  What is called “the patriarchy” represents the civilized norms of society that authoritarian regimes immediately try to supplant with their own twisted norms justifying their own power.  Often the first move of authoritarian regimes is to imprison intellectuals and thought leaders.  This happened during Taiwan’s White Terror period.  Several signers of the Declaration of Independence were captured and jailed by the British during the American Revolution.  Interestingly it is during periods of greatest upheaval that men most often come into their own.  During these “times that try mens’ souls” we find the most examples of men embodying chivalric ideals; during the times when great issues and ideas capture the public imagination, the chivalry of men gains the most approbation from their fellow-men.  We are living through times such as these now, with the only twist being that the revolutions capturing the minds of men are quieter.  

Climate change is one of these huge upheavals that is nonetheless a more subdued mental struggle, but the stakes in this have never been higher.  If we believe in this tendency of men to rise to the occasion, the crisis we face is only one of awareness.  The United Auto Workers strike of 2023 for a just transition to electric vehicles is one example of men taking control of their own destiny.  Workers across the world could tell you that there is no crisis of masculinity on the picket line. 

The politics of male resentment exploits only the lack of solidarity amongst men.  We can lay this charge at the feet of every authoritarian populist movement around the globe now, that they are only exploiting the feelings of isolation and alienation felt by men in this modern era.  The solution and antidote has always been at our fingertips: mutual self-help and solidarity. 

Since the dawn of time men have always coalesced around leaders, often for the wrong reasons.  There have always been two forces in the society of men: creation and destruction.  Ignorance and brutality has always preferred to destroy, and wisdom and insight has always preferred to create.  Men should always turn to the honor of creating things when the situation is in doubt.  Honor is something we can control as a society.  We can change the parameters of society to better honor the creative forces. 

Where are the concrete policies designed to honor those advancing the image of society as an information revolution powered by green energy?  We need those policies now, and we can get them, for the sake, at least, of saving positive masculinity from paralysis.  This will do more than any other policy to produce good male role models and save masculinity from itself. 

Cognitive Warfare

Oct. 1, 2023

Warnings about cognitive warfare are in the air.  Rand Corp. recently published a study on the effects of generative A.I. on China’s “cognitive domain operations”, otherwise known as cognitive warfare, in the Taiwan Strait, concluding that the new technology of A.I. provides the capability for China to engage in more widespread, more sophisticated, and harder-to-spot cognitive warfare on Taiwan through social media manipulation.  In particular, generative A.I. is perfect for turbocharging “astroturfing” campaigns which are coordinated efforts to make propaganda look like genuine popular sentiment by linking myriad fake accounts, posts, and reactions together in spreading a message, which creates the impression that an idea has wide popular support, when in fact it comes from a propaganda unit of, in this case, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army or similar groups.  

Excerpt from the report: 

Read the full report here.